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C00002 00002	%moscow[s90,jmc]		Notes on visit to Moscow - talk at Hoover
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%moscow[s90,jmc]		Notes on visit to Moscow - talk at Hoover

purpose of trip
last 3 yrs

Kovalev just out of prison
panic from the Andreyeva letter, Ligachev

will the apparat succeed in controlling the academy elections?
no signnificant independent press
Sagdeev, Arbatov and economist election platforms

Kovalev a deputy
plenty of independent press
some with professional printing
Andreyeva just a crank Stalinist, no speculation about support

the Russian Supreme Soviet
everyone watching it on tv
anti-communist speeches printed in Sovyetskaya Rossiya
No chauvinism in the Russian Supreme Soviet speeches

economy bad but expensive good tomatoes and taxis only for foreign currency

Blinov and Smirnov platforms for Party conference
50,000 apparat jobs in danger in Moscow
The Party will probably split

General conclusions
1. The communists cracked so easily, because once their
self-image of service collapsed, they had no coherence
as a mere mafia.

2. Probably they can take a few more years of turmoil provided
political progress continues.

3. Gorbachev is being outrun by events.  The People's Congress
may have to change the Constitution and make G run for President.

4. The articles I have read by journalists and Sovietologists
don't do justice to the enormous variety of phenomena taking
place in the Soviet Union.  There is much more to be learned from
reading Moscow News or Glasnost.

5. There are many areas of political stagnation and continued
repression.

Helping the Soviets.
	humanitarian reason
	If there's a real defense cut, we can afford it.

When the economy of a country fails to grow as improved
technology becomes available, it has to be because some
sector has the will and power to absorb all surplus
product unproductively. - Absentee landlords, welfare system,
bureaucracy, military.

Up to recently, and maybe even now, the military sector of the
Soviet economy has absorbed all surplus resources.  There is
no point helping till this is seen to change.  Dangerous for
us and doesn't help them.

Maybe some specialized help and collaboration is warranted.

Meeting at the Voters' Club of Ramenskaya Micro-Region.
	diagnosis programs
	but no data processing
	salesmen
	hmo

They need to rejoin the world, McDonalds is just right for them.
They should copy formulas for a while as the Japanese did.